Worst Infrastructure: Detroit Metro — 2026

Out of 71 ZIP codes with infrastructure data in the Detroit metro area, these areas face the highest estimated risk of water pipe failure based on infrastructure age, funding gaps, and violation history.

Statistic	Value
ZIP codes ranked	71
Highest risk	59%
Median risk	39%
Average risk	42%

Top 71 Highest Risk ZIP Codes

Rank	ZIP Code	City	State	Pipe Failure Risk	Risk Level	Safety Score
1	48204	Detroit	MI	59%	High	77/100
2	48206	Detroit	MI	59%	High	77/100
3	48209	Detroit	MI	59%	High	72/100
4	48238	Detroit	MI	59%	High	77/100
5	48210	Detroit	MI	58%	High	77/100
6	48221	Detroit	MI	58%	High	72/100
7	48227	Detroit	MI	58%	High	72/100
8	48211	Detroit	MI	57%	High	77/100
9	48213	Detroit	MI	57%	High	77/100
10	48224	Detroit	MI	57%	High	72/100
11	48205	Detroit	MI	56%	High	72/100
12	48214	Detroit	MI	56%	High	77/100
13	48234	Detroit	MI	56%	High	72/100
14	48202	Detroit	MI	55%	High	77/100
15	48217	Detroit	MI	55%	High	77/100
16	48223	Detroit	MI	55%	High	72/100
17	48216	Detroit	MI	54%	High	76/100
18	48219	Detroit	MI	54%	High	72/100
19	48228	Detroit	MI	54%	High	72/100
20	48235	Detroit	MI	53%	High	72/100
21	48208	Detroit	MI	52%	High	76/100
22	48215	Detroit	MI	52%	High	62/100
23	48125	Dearborn Heights	MI	51%	High	76/100
24	48128	Dearborn	MI	51%	High	93/100
25	48226	Detroit	MI	50%	High	76/100
26	48124	Dearborn	MI	48%	High	83/100
27	48127	Dearborn Heights	MI	48%	High	86/100
28	48207	Detroit	MI	48%	High	77/100
29	48126	Dearborn	MI	47%	High	88/100
30	48201	Detroit	MI	46%	High	77/100
31	48104	Ann Arbor	MI	45%	High	60/100
32	48120	Dearborn	MI	42%	High	93/100
33	48089	Warren	MI	40%	Moderate	95/100
34	48088	Warren	MI	39%	Moderate	95/100
35	48093	Warren	MI	39%	Moderate	95/100
36	48103	Ann Arbor	MI	39%	Moderate	60/100
37	48091	Warren	MI	38%	Moderate	95/100
38	48109	Ann Arbor	MI	38%	Moderate	61/100
39	48092	Warren	MI	37%	Moderate	90/100
40	48310	Sterling Heights	MI	37%	Moderate	87/100
41	48312	Sterling Heights	MI	37%	Moderate	82/100
42	48105	Ann Arbor	MI	36%	Moderate	65/100
43	48313	Sterling Heights	MI	36%	Moderate	87/100
44	48108	Ann Arbor	MI	35%	Moderate	65/100
45	48222	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
46	48231	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
47	48232	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
48	48233	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
49	48242	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
50	48243	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
51	48244	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
52	48255	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
53	48260	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
54	48264	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
55	48265	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
56	48266	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
57	48267	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
58	48268	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
59	48269	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
60	48272	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
61	48275	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
62	48277	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
63	48278	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
64	48279	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
65	48288	Detroit	MI	31%	Moderate	76/100
66	48106	Ann Arbor	MI	29%	Moderate	61/100
67	48107	Ann Arbor	MI	29%	Moderate	61/100
68	48113	Ann Arbor	MI	29%	Moderate	61/100
69	48314	Sterling Heights	MI	25%	Moderate	87/100
70	48090	Warren	MI	23%	Moderate	99/100
71	48397	Warren	MI	23%	Moderate	99/100

Methodology

Infrastructure risk rankings combine four data sources, each weighted equally (25%): (1) EPA Drinking Water Infrastructure Needs Survey (DWINS 2023) — state-level 20-year funding gap per capita for pipe replacement, treatment, and storage; (2) Census ACS housing vintage — percentage of homes built before 1980, when lead solder and galvanized pipes were common; (3) EPA SDWIS violation and enforcement data — system-level compliance history; (4) Lead and Copper Rule indicators — service line material inventories and 90th percentile lead testing results. The combined score is normalized to a 0-100% probability scale.

Data sources: EPA DWINS 2023, Census ACS, EPA SDWIS, Lead and Copper Rule data. Last updated: 2026-06-04.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does pipe failure probability mean?

Pipe failure probability estimates the likelihood of water main breaks, lead contamination from corroded pipes, or service disruptions based on infrastructure age, state funding gaps, violation history, and lead indicators. It is not a prediction of imminent failure, but a risk assessment based on known factors.

How is infrastructure risk calculated?

The risk score combines four equally weighted factors: state-level infrastructure funding gap per capita (from EPA DWINS 2023), housing vintage (Census ACS pre-1980 housing percentage), water system violation and enforcement history (EPA SDWIS), and lead exposure indicators (service line probability and testing results).

What can homeowners do about aging infrastructure?

Test your tap water annually, especially for lead. Check if your home has a lead service line through your water utility. Consider a whole-house water filter (NSF/ANSI 53 certified). Review your water system Consumer Confidence Report for violation history.

Does high risk mean my water is unsafe right now?

Not necessarily. Infrastructure risk indicates long-term vulnerability, not current contamination. However, areas with aging pipes and high violation counts have a statistically higher chance of water quality issues. Regular testing is the best way to verify your water safety.