Worst Infrastructure: San Francisco Metro

Out of 154 ZIP codes with infrastructure data in the San Francisco metro area, these areas face the highest estimated risk of water pipe failure based on infrastructure age, funding gaps, and violation history.

Statistic	Value
ZIP codes ranked	154
Highest risk	57%
Median risk	35%
Average risk	37%

Top 100 Highest Risk ZIP Codes

Rank	ZIP Code	City	State	Pipe Failure Risk	Risk Level	Safety Score
1	94116	San Francisco	CA	57%	High	54/100
2	94108	San Francisco	CA	56%	High	59/100
3	94117	San Francisco	CA	56%	High	53/100
4	94122	San Francisco	CA	56%	High	59/100
5	94127	San Francisco	CA	56%	High	59/100
6	94112	San Francisco	CA	55%	High	54/100
7	94114	San Francisco	CA	55%	High	59/100
8	94118	San Francisco	CA	55%	High	59/100
9	94123	San Francisco	CA	55%	High	59/100
10	94104	San Francisco	CA	54%	High	59/100
11	94110	San Francisco	CA	54%	High	59/100
12	94121	San Francisco	CA	54%	High	59/100
13	94129	San Francisco	CA	54%	High	53/100
14	94109	San Francisco	CA	53%	High	59/100
15	94133	San Francisco	CA	53%	High	59/100
16	94115	San Francisco	CA	52%	High	59/100
17	94130	San Francisco	CA	52%	High	53/100
18	94132	San Francisco	CA	52%	High	59/100
19	94602	Oakland	CA	51%	High	74/100
20	94131	San Francisco	CA	50%	High	59/100
21	94134	San Francisco	CA	50%	High	53/100
22	94610	Oakland	CA	50%	High	74/100
23	94619	Oakland	CA	50%	High	74/100
24	94102	San Francisco	CA	49%	High	59/100
25	94606	Oakland	CA	49%	High	79/100
26	94609	Oakland	CA	49%	High	79/100
27	94601	Oakland	CA	48%	High	74/100
28	94603	Oakland	CA	48%	High	74/100
29	94605	Oakland	CA	48%	High	69/100
30	94611	Oakland	CA	47%	High	69/100
31	94618	Oakland	CA	46%	High	74/100
32	94621	Oakland	CA	46%	High	74/100
33	94124	San Francisco	CA	44%	High	59/100
34	94541	Hayward	CA	44%	High	78/100
35	94111	San Francisco	CA	43%	High	54/100
36	94544	Hayward	CA	42%	High	78/100
37	95117	San Jose	CA	42%	High	82/100
38	95124	San Jose	CA	42%	High	82/100
39	95127	San Jose	CA	42%	High	77/100
40	95130	San Jose	CA	42%	High	82/100
41	94103	San Francisco	CA	41%	High	59/100
42	94545	Hayward	CA	41%	High	83/100
43	95118	San Jose	CA	41%	High	82/100
44	95125	San Jose	CA	41%	High	72/100
45	95129	San Jose	CA	41%	High	82/100
46	95132	San Jose	CA	41%	High	77/100
47	95139	San Jose	CA	41%	High	82/100
48	94080	South San Francisco	CA	40%	Moderate	73/100
49	94536	Fremont	CA	40%	Moderate	78/100
50	95112	San Jose	CA	40%	Moderate	72/100
51	95119	San Jose	CA	40%	Moderate	82/100
52	95128	San Jose	CA	40%	Moderate	82/100
53	95116	San Jose	CA	39%	Moderate	72/100
54	95120	San Jose	CA	39%	Moderate	77/100
55	95121	San Jose	CA	39%	Moderate	82/100
56	95122	San Jose	CA	39%	Moderate	77/100
57	94542	Hayward	CA	38%	Moderate	83/100
58	94607	Oakland	CA	38%	Moderate	79/100
59	94612	Oakland	CA	38%	Moderate	79/100
60	95111	San Jose	CA	38%	Moderate	82/100
61	95110	San Jose	CA	37%	Moderate	72/100
62	94538	Fremont	CA	36%	Moderate	78/100
63	94539	Fremont	CA	36%	Moderate	78/100
64	95148	San Jose	CA	36%	Moderate	77/100
65	94101	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
66	94119	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
67	94120	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	59/100
68	94125	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
69	94126	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
70	94128	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
71	94136	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
72	94137	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
73	94139	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
74	94140	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
75	94141	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
76	94142	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
77	94143	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
78	94144	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
79	94145	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
80	94146	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
81	94147	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
82	94150	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
83	94151	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
84	94153	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
85	94154	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
86	94156	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
87	94159	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
88	94160	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
89	94161	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
90	94162	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
91	94163	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
92	94164	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
93	94171	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
94	94172	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
95	94175	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
96	94177	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
97	94188	San Francisco	CA	35%	Moderate	53/100
98	94555	Fremont	CA	35%	Moderate	78/100
99	95123	San Jose	CA	35%	Moderate	82/100
100	95126	San Jose	CA	35%	Moderate	82/100

Methodology

Infrastructure risk rankings combine four data sources, each weighted equally (25%): (1) EPA Drinking Water Infrastructure Needs Survey (DWINS 2023) — state-level 20-year funding gap per capita for pipe replacement, treatment, and storage; (2) Census ACS housing vintage — percentage of homes built before 1980, when lead solder and galvanized pipes were common; (3) EPA SDWIS violation and enforcement data — system-level compliance history; (4) Lead and Copper Rule indicators — service line material inventories and 90th percentile lead testing results. The combined score is normalized to a 0-100% probability scale.

Data sources: EPA DWINS 2023, Census ACS, EPA SDWIS, Lead and Copper Rule data. Last updated: 2026-07-19.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does pipe failure probability mean?

Pipe failure probability estimates the likelihood of water main breaks, lead contamination from corroded pipes, or service disruptions based on infrastructure age, state funding gaps, violation history, and lead indicators. It is not a prediction of imminent failure, but a risk assessment based on known factors.

How is infrastructure risk calculated?

The risk score combines four equally weighted factors: state-level infrastructure funding gap per capita (from EPA DWINS 2023), housing vintage (Census ACS pre-1980 housing percentage), water system violation and enforcement history (EPA SDWIS), and lead exposure indicators (service line probability and testing results).

What can homeowners do about aging infrastructure?

Test your tap water annually, especially for lead. Check if your home has a lead service line through your water utility. Consider a whole-house water filter (NSF/ANSI 53 certified). Review your water system Consumer Confidence Report for violation history.

Does high risk mean my water is unsafe right now?

Not necessarily. Infrastructure risk indicates long-term vulnerability, not current contamination. However, areas with aging pipes and high violation counts have a statistically higher chance of water quality issues. Regular testing is the best way to verify your water safety.

Worst Infrastructure: San Francisco Metro — 2026