Worst Infrastructure: Phoenix Metro — 2026

Out of 138 ZIP codes with infrastructure data in the Phoenix metro area, these areas face the highest estimated risk of water pipe failure based on infrastructure age, funding gaps, and violation history.

Statistic	Value
ZIP codes ranked	138
Highest risk	49%
Median risk	29%
Average risk	33%

Top 100 Highest Risk ZIP Codes

Rank	ZIP Code	City	State	Pipe Failure Risk	Risk Level	Safety Score
1	85006	Phoenix	AZ	49%	High	58/100
2	85007	Phoenix	AZ	48%	High	53/100
3	85257	Scottsdale	AZ	48%	High	77/100
4	85009	Phoenix	AZ	47%	High	53/100
5	85250	Scottsdale	AZ	47%	High	77/100
6	85015	Phoenix	AZ	46%	High	48/100
7	85019	Phoenix	AZ	46%	High	53/100
8	85031	Phoenix	AZ	46%	High	48/100
9	85013	Phoenix	AZ	45%	High	48/100
10	85017	Phoenix	AZ	45%	High	53/100
11	85051	Phoenix	AZ	45%	High	53/100
12	85014	Phoenix	AZ	44%	High	48/100
13	85018	Phoenix	AZ	44%	High	48/100
14	85028	Phoenix	AZ	44%	High	58/100
15	85029	Phoenix	AZ	44%	High	53/100
16	85033	Phoenix	AZ	44%	High	53/100
17	85203	Mesa	AZ	44%	High	67/100
18	85251	Scottsdale	AZ	44%	High	72/100
19	85003	Phoenix	AZ	43%	High	58/100
20	85021	Phoenix	AZ	43%	High	48/100
21	85053	Phoenix	AZ	43%	High	50/100
22	85202	Mesa	AZ	43%	High	72/100
23	85256	Scottsdale	AZ	42%	High	82/100
24	85258	Scottsdale	AZ	42%	High	77/100
25	85282	Tempe	AZ	42%	High	82/100
26	85020	Phoenix	AZ	41%	High	48/100
27	85204	Mesa	AZ	41%	High	72/100
28	85008	Phoenix	AZ	40%	Moderate	48/100
29	85016	Phoenix	AZ	40%	Moderate	48/100
30	85035	Phoenix	AZ	40%	Moderate	58/100
31	85201	Mesa	AZ	40%	Moderate	67/100
32	85210	Mesa	AZ	40%	Moderate	72/100
33	85012	Phoenix	AZ	39%	Moderate	53/100
34	85032	Phoenix	AZ	38%	Moderate	53/100
35	85040	Phoenix	AZ	38%	Moderate	58/100
36	85254	Scottsdale	AZ	38%	Moderate	77/100
37	85283	Tempe	AZ	38%	Moderate	82/100
38	86043	Second Mesa	AZ	38%	Moderate	53/100
39	85022	Phoenix	AZ	37%	Moderate	53/100
40	85023	Phoenix	AZ	37%	Moderate	53/100
41	85299	Gilbert	AZ	37%	Moderate	67/100
42	85205	Mesa	AZ	35%	Moderate	72/100
43	85034	Phoenix	AZ	34%	Moderate	53/100
44	85042	Phoenix	AZ	34%	Moderate	58/100
45	85206	Mesa	AZ	34%	Moderate	67/100
46	85208	Mesa	AZ	34%	Moderate	72/100
47	85213	Mesa	AZ	34%	Moderate	72/100
48	85234	Gilbert	AZ	34%	Moderate	70/100
49	85004	Phoenix	AZ	33%	Moderate	58/100
50	85027	Phoenix	AZ	33%	Moderate	58/100
51	85041	Phoenix	AZ	33%	Moderate	53/100
52	85224	Chandler	AZ	33%	Moderate	78/100
53	85252	Scottsdale	AZ	33%	Moderate	82/100
54	85261	Scottsdale	AZ	33%	Moderate	82/100
55	85267	Scottsdale	AZ	33%	Moderate	82/100
56	85271	Scottsdale	AZ	33%	Moderate	82/100
57	85281	Tempe	AZ	33%	Moderate	77/100
58	85044	Phoenix	AZ	32%	Moderate	58/100
59	85225	Chandler	AZ	32%	Moderate	78/100
60	85233	Gilbert	AZ	32%	Moderate	70/100
61	85037	Phoenix	AZ	31%	Moderate	58/100
62	85215	Mesa	AZ	31%	Moderate	72/100
63	85260	Scottsdale	AZ	31%	Moderate	77/100
64	85284	Tempe	AZ	31%	Moderate	82/100
65	85244	Chandler	AZ	30%	Moderate	77/100
66	85246	Chandler	AZ	30%	Moderate	78/100
67	85259	Scottsdale	AZ	30%	Moderate	82/100
68	85001	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	58/100
69	85002	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
70	85005	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	58/100
71	85010	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
72	85011	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
73	85025	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
74	85026	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
75	85030	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	58/100
76	85036	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	58/100
77	85038	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
78	85039	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
79	85046	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
80	85055	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
81	85060	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	58/100
82	85061	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	58/100
83	85062	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
84	85063	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
85	85064	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	58/100
86	85065	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
87	85066	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
88	85067	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	58/100
89	85068	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
90	85069	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
91	85070	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
92	85071	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
93	85072	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
94	85073	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
95	85074	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
96	85075	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
97	85076	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
98	85078	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
99	85079	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100
100	85080	Phoenix	AZ	29%	Moderate	50/100

Methodology

Infrastructure risk rankings combine four data sources, each weighted equally (25%): (1) EPA Drinking Water Infrastructure Needs Survey (DWINS 2023) — state-level 20-year funding gap per capita for pipe replacement, treatment, and storage; (2) Census ACS housing vintage — percentage of homes built before 1980, when lead solder and galvanized pipes were common; (3) EPA SDWIS violation and enforcement data — system-level compliance history; (4) Lead and Copper Rule indicators — service line material inventories and 90th percentile lead testing results. The combined score is normalized to a 0-100% probability scale.

Data sources: EPA DWINS 2023, Census ACS, EPA SDWIS, Lead and Copper Rule data. Last updated: 2026-06-04.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does pipe failure probability mean?

Pipe failure probability estimates the likelihood of water main breaks, lead contamination from corroded pipes, or service disruptions based on infrastructure age, state funding gaps, violation history, and lead indicators. It is not a prediction of imminent failure, but a risk assessment based on known factors.

How is infrastructure risk calculated?

The risk score combines four equally weighted factors: state-level infrastructure funding gap per capita (from EPA DWINS 2023), housing vintage (Census ACS pre-1980 housing percentage), water system violation and enforcement history (EPA SDWIS), and lead exposure indicators (service line probability and testing results).

What can homeowners do about aging infrastructure?

Test your tap water annually, especially for lead. Check if your home has a lead service line through your water utility. Consider a whole-house water filter (NSF/ANSI 53 certified). Review your water system Consumer Confidence Report for violation history.

Does high risk mean my water is unsafe right now?

Not necessarily. Infrastructure risk indicates long-term vulnerability, not current contamination. However, areas with aging pipes and high violation counts have a statistically higher chance of water quality issues. Regular testing is the best way to verify your water safety.